This week's market trends & insights

June 9th, 2023

Without a Doubt

With very few exceptions, home prices are rising again nationwide. According to Black Knight, median home prices are now only 1% below their peak in June 2022. Nearly half of the largest 50 cities (mostly in the Midwest and Northeast) are either back at or setting new record highs. And we're also seeing rapid home price recoveries in hard-hit west coast cities like Seattle and San Jose.

The Inventory Problem

The number of homes available for sale nationwide should be rising right now. Instead, active inventory has been roughly flat for the last four months at 560,000-580,000. Why? Because new listings are running 20-30% below last year, but demand is robust. To put the current inventory figure in perspective, in May 2019 there were 1.2 million homes available for sale.

Skip and a Jump?

The market expects the Federal Reserve to 'skip' a rate hike next week. Of course 'skip' doesn't mean 'stop', but even a pause could result in a nice drop in mortgage rates if (and this is a big IF) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's commentary is a bit more patient/prudent and a lot less hawkish than it has been previously. Unfortunately, the recent inflation and jobs data hasn't helped us.

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